Wednesday, 26 September 2007

Send not to know for whom the bell tolls...

...it tolls for thee, Cameron:

Labour's lead has risen to 11 points after Gordon Brown's first conference speech as leader, according to Channel 4 News poll. The YouGov opinion poll, which began after Gordon Brown finished his keynote address yesterday, puts Labour on 44 points, eleven points ahead of the Conservatives on 33. The Lib Dems' support is squeezed further, to 13 points.

On Monday a poll of polls in the Independent put Labour on 38 points, a lead of just four points over the Tories, with the Lib Dems on 17. If Labour were to win a similar share of the vote at a general election, they could expect a majority even larger than Blair's landslides in 1997 and 2001.

True, Cameron has yet to give his own big conference speech - that may lower the lead. And it's also true that the polls overstated Labour's lead before the 2005 election. But it must be unheard of for a government to have an 11% lead after ten years in power, particularly ten years as controversial as this government's have often been. Indeed, for those of us who truly loathe David Cameron, the only possible downside is that the polls are now looking so bad, that if he can only keep Labour's majority from getting any bigger, then he may be able to cling on until the election after next.

As for Brown: if he doesn't go ahead and call an October election after this, then I can only conclude that Cameron is in possession of some rather compromising photographs of him!

8 comments:

JuliaM said...

"True, Cameron has yet to give his own big conference speech - that may lower the lead."

Or increase it!

Anonymous said...

Why do you hate Cameron so much?

I'm as much of a right-winger as you are and, as far as I'm concerned, he is acting in the best interests of the British right. He's made some mistakes (who wouldn't?), he's made a few uncalled-for ideological concessions (he's not a terribly ideological chap) and he has certain inbuilt disadvantages (social class and PR background) but he has halted the progressive estrangement of the Conservative Party from BBC-brainwashed Middle England.

All other parties (BNP, UKIP, etc) are, at best, pressure groups that have as much chance of wrestling the levers of power from the New Establishment as Jimmy Goldsmith did.

Thicker right wingers may urge the Tories to cut the Gordian knot and grab power through the audacity of an uncompromising platform but that is a strategy doomed to defeat.

Cameron is a chess player who is playing a subtle game. It is incumbent upon cruder minds not merely to heap abuse upon him for failing to gratify their emotional needs but to offer a clear and well-thought through alternative stategy for taking power.

JuliaM said...

"Why do you hate Cameron so much?"

'Hate' is not really the word. 'Despise' would be better. I'm sure he's a very loveable chap to meet and talk to. He just is (in no way, shape or form) an appropriate choice for Tory Leader.

Not least because he doesn't seem to stand for anything other than getting into power. So how would he be any different than the last incumbent of No 10?

"Cameron is a chess player who is playing a subtle game."

Well, he might be. But the other side are actually playing poker, and Dim Dave hasn't realised he's in the wrong game.

"It is incumbent upon cruder minds not merely to heap abuse upon him for failing to gratify their emotional needs but to offer a clear and well-thought through alternative stategy for taking power."

Good argument there: 'He's smarter than you all, so just stop rocking the boat about his stupider ideas and cheer him on!'

Not too terribly convincing...

bernard said...

Good reply, Juliam. On the question of Cameron playing chess or poker, I would suggest that by his desire to appeal to everyone, the game of Snap, would be more appropriate.

Anonymous said...

Thanks for that, guys. [deep sarcasm]

Perhaps now you can answer my point:

"It is incumbent upon cruder minds not merely to heap abuse upon him for failing to gratify their emotional needs but to offer a clear and well-thought through alternative stategy for taking power."

Any thoughts? Or do you prefer to confine yourselves to smartarse remarks?

JuliaM said...

"...offer a clear and well-thought through alternative stategy for taking power."

Well, how about reverting to the old strategy, of, you know, real conservative values and ideals, such as law and order, fiscal responsibility, national defence of borders, etc?

Instead of leaping frantically at every passing bandwagon pulled by fringe pressure groups, missing, and falling helplessly to the floor in a pile of mud.

Or he could just carry on hugging hoodies and huskies...

Fulham Reactionary said...

On policy I'd broadly agree with what JuliaM says. If the Tories aren't going to get (very) tough on immigration and crime, aren't going to reduce the tax burden, preferably prune back the welfare state a bit, and start taking back powers from the EU, then what, really, is the point of voting for them, even if they do appeal to "BBC-brainwashed Middle England"? I would add that Cameron has at every stage sought to attack the true right - denouncing supporters of grammar schools as delusional, accusing UKIP members of being "fruitcakes, loonies, and closet racists", and comparing the BNP to Islamic terrorists. He can hardly complain, therefore, if the right is not overly enamoured of him.

Add to this, that I don't really see that Cameron does have any particular appeal that, say, Michael Howard, or even Hague or IDS, didn't have. A second poll, for the Telegraph this time (although still Yougov) has shown the Tories still 11% behind. Cameron made some advances against Blair, but he's losing them all against Brown. I would particularly point out that 63% of people polled said that they did not know what the Tories stood for anymore. This is a direct result of Cameron's attempt to move the party into liberal territor

Blogger said...

SwagBucks is the best work from home site.