The changing face of the growing population

Britain's population could soar to 90million over the next 50 years.

The dramatic increase, fuelled by immigration and a rising birth rate, would add more than 50 per cent to today's population and put enormous pressure on housing, transport and public services.

Statisticians said the rise would be the equivalent of adding a city the size of Sheffield to the country each year.

The figures are expected to be announced tomorrow by the Government Actuary's Department (GAD) and were seized on by the Tories yesterday as evidence that a cap is needed on immigration from countries outside the European Union.

Labour ministers claim that measures are already in the pipeline to deal with an expected population surge over the coming decades, including a new points-based system for screening migrant workers.

GAD statisticians have made a series of predictions based on estimates of three key factors - net migration, birthrates and lifespan.

Earlier this month, they published their central forecast, known as the 'principal projection', which predicted the number of UK residents would rise to 71.1 million by 2031 and 78.6 million by 2056.

Tomorrow, GAD will release 'variant projections' which describe how the population will grow if the three key factors turn out higher or lower than anticipated.

Independent statisticians, using calculations based on data already disclosed by the GAD, have been able to determine in advance the figures likely to be released on Tuesday through The Office for National Statistics.

Their estimates put the population at between 66million and 75million by 2031 and between 66million and 90million in 2056.

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GAD's population forecasts, which are used to plan public spending, have proved to be too low in the past. Its previous estimates two years ago suggested the population in 2056 would be only 69.6million, with a 'high projection' of 82.6million.

The estimate has been increased due to the surge in immigration in the past two years, particularly from the new EU states in eastern Europe.

In order to emphasise the point that the rising birth rate is going to be among the causes of this, potentially massive, increase in the total population, the Daily Mail illustrates its article with a picture of twelve happy babies. However, if you click on the link, then you will find that the picture is somewhat misleading, since all the babies are white. Whereas in reality:

The overall UK average [birth rate] is 1.84 babies. The average for British-born women is 1.6 and for foreign-born women 2.2.

A significant discrepancy. And that's not all:

The highest birthrate in the UK is among Pakistani-born women, who have an average of 4.7 children each.

Well, well, well. And what might the implications of the extremely high birth rate of this particular group be? Personally, I think that the notorious Norwegian-based Islamic extremist Mullah Krekar had it about right:

We're the ones who will change you. Just look at the development within Europe, where the number of Muslims is expanding like mosquitoes. Every western woman in the EU is producing an average of 1.4 children. Every Muslim woman in the same countries are producing 3.5 children...our way of thinking...will prove more powerful than yours.

The strain on resources, which we are already witnessing to such an extent that it has today even been acknowledged by The Observer, would be beyond all reckoning were the population to increase to 90million. But of far greater concern even than the increasing numbers of the population, is the changing face of the population. Because, as the figures above indicate, it is quite possible that, by the time the population of the United Kingdom does reach 90million, that population will not only be majority non-white, but might well also be majority Muslim.